Reform UK’s Challenge: Expanding Support Without Losing Its Core

Reform UK’s recent internal upheavals reveal a party struggling to balance rapid growth with coherent identity—and it’s raising big questions about the sustainability of its rising popularity. Analysts warn that Reform’s momentum may be plateauing after early gains. While national polling puts Reform ahead on 27 per cent, with Labour trailing on 20 per cent, YouGov suggests that tactical voting could narrow the gap and test how far that surge can carry. While Reform is drawing attention as the top party among Gen Z men, it still faces the task of aligning its message with a broader electorate. The question is whether widening its appeal can be done without fracturing the coalition it has built so quickly.

The resignation of the party’s only Black branch chair over what he felt were rising levels of Islamaphobia and Christian nationalism within the party lays bare these internal strains. It perhaps points to a deeper struggle over how Reform frames its core issues—especially immigration, where the tone and rhetoric used by some members risks alienating prospective Reform voters who broadly agree with the party’s policies.

That tension has also spilt into local politics. Dartford Borough Councillor James Buchan’s recent defection to the Conservatives, after citing “discomfort” with what he saw “from the inside” of the party, echoes concerns about messaging. In Cornwall, five councillors left the party in October, warning it had become “too focused on national issues” at the expense of local priorities. These local departures illustrate how the party’s national ambitions risk outpacing its ability to maintain cohesion on the ground.

Compounding these difficulties, Nigel Farage’s reversal on the £90 billion tax-cut pledge illustrates the inherent challenge Reform faces as it strives to break through its current ceiling of support. This retreat exposes the tension between bold, headline-grabbing promises and the pragmatic realities of policy delivery, which risks alienating some voters and unsettling party cohesion. As Reform seeks to broaden its appeal beyond its existing base, it must navigate these internal contradictions carefully. While the precise strategies the party will adopt to expand its reach remain unclear, its success—or failure—will likely become more visible through the results of the 2026 local elections. These contests will offer crucial insight into whether Reform can convert its rising national profile into sustained, geographically diverse support, balancing growth ambitions with the need for a coherent identity.